Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Market
By Launch Platform (Land Based, Submarine Based),
By Range (5,000km to 8,000km, 8,001km to 15,000km, More than 15,000km),
By Propulsion (Liquid Propulsion, Solid Propulsion, Hybrid Propulsion),
By Speed (Supersonic, Hypersonic),
By Region (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa):
Global Analysis and Forecast 2023-2033.
The global intercontinental ballistics missiles market showcased a revenue of USD 9.5 billion in 2022 and is projected to witness a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 6.00% over the forecast period of 2023-2033.
Russia-Ukraine War Impact
About the Market
Impact of COVID-19
Global Economic Slowdown
How is this report helpful
Intercontinental ballistic missiles are supersonic or hypersonic missiles having a range of at least 3500 nautical miles (6,500km) following a ballistic course after a guided or powered launch. These missiles can be launched from land or submarines while carrying nuclear warheads. Soviet rocket designer Sergei Korolëv developed the world's first ICBM R-7 from 1954-1957. The ICBM established a stronghold in the cold war era that propelled the Soviet Union and the United States to start an arms race. 1961 the first operational U.S. ICBM, the Atlas missile, became active. ICBMs were the mainstay in the U.S. military fleet, which comprised 1,054 ICBMs in 1975. Increasing geopolitical conflicts, increasing allocation of military budgets, growing terrorist activities across the globe, and technological advancement in developing nuclear arms are fueling the market demand for intercontinental ballistic missiles.
As of March 2023, ICBMs have not been used in a war, but countries have maintained ICBMs in their arsenal to provide a deterrent against other nuclear arms nations. Russia, the United States, China, North Korea, India, and Israel are the nations that are known to possess ICBMs. However, few nations do not acknowledge publicly their military arsenal. This is accredited to growing geopolitical conflicts among and within countries. For instance, in 2011, Yemen's long-standing authoritarian president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, had to hand over power to his deputy, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, due to a popular uprising in Yemen. Houthis, an Islamist political and armed movement, saw a weakness in the administration and decided to take over the capital, Sanaa, in 2014. Yemen's neighbor Saudi Arabia was distressed by the outlook of the Houthis taking control of Yemen, dreading it would become a satellite of its rival, Iran. The alliance received logistical and intelligence support from the U.S., UK, and France. Till 2022, the conflict has only grown much more brutal, with Houthis launching an attack on Marib, an oil-rich province and the government's last stronghold. Numerous conflicts such as these, coupled with technological advancement, will drive the growth of the Intercontinental ballistic missiles market.
Increasing tensions between nations in the region have forced nations to increase their military budgets, forming the demand for intercontinental ballistic missiles and triggering more growth in Asia and other regions. For instance, the U.S. Army spending/defense budget for 2021 was $800.67B, a 2.86% increase from 2020, and for 2019 was $734.34B, a 7.6% increase from 2018. The U.S. is the nuclear warhead leader of the world, but Russia possesses the longest-range ICBM in the world. The RS-28 Sarmat has a range of 10,000-18,000 km. With the advent of Hypersonic in the U.S. defense and commercial market, applications involving Hypersonic are snowballing. Since most countries are financially and technically capable, the arms race will only surge in the coming future when coupled with the advent of Hypersonic will fuel the market growth of Intercontinental ballistic missiles all over the globe.
Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Market
There is a direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global intercontinental ballistic missile market. However, the European region will witness the highest impact. After witnessing a big crisis, most countries have made attempts to make alliances and brochure peace with nations to prevent crises such as these. Russia, on the other hand, has been adamant about employing short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs). According to U.S. estimates, Russia's initial attack on Ukraine comprised more than 100 missiles launched from land and sea, including cruise and surface-to-air missiles. The demand for ICBMs will increase from countries anticipating the threat from Russia. In contrast, the production of ICBMs in the European region could be disrupted. The production of ICBMs, or, for that matter, any missile, requires factors of production such as infrastructure, raw material, and skilled labor, which could be disrupted due to the cutting off of supply channels. In the short term, production in the warzone region could be halted. However, in the long term, the demand is more likely to rise by the countries looking to come into power.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles: Market Scope
The intercontinental ballistic missiles market is primarily divided into four segments launch platform, Range, propulsion, and speed. Furthermore, these segments are subdivided into respective categories and cross-referenced to North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa for regional analysis. The launch platform segment is further categorized into land-based and submarine-based. The range segment is segregated into 5,000km to 8,000km, 8,001km to 15,000km, and more than 15,000km. The propulsion segment of the intercontinental ballistic missiles market is bifurcated into liquid propulsion, solid propulsion, and hybrid propulsion. Concerning speed, the industry is analyzed by supersonic and hypersonic. Each of these segments is further classified into regions: North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa. The historical dataset of 2018-2022 is provided in the report, whereas the forecast period of 2023-2033 is offered.
Land based will witness the highest growth rate within the Launch Platform segment
Land-based ballistic missiles show a fulfilling revenue generation in the launch platform segment. Land-based platforms are preferred over submarine based since they are less expensive as compared to submarines which are complex machines involving high maintenance costs. Moreover, land-based platforms are more reliable since submarines operate in a harsher environment. Monitoring land-based platforms is also easier since they are easily visible, helping countries adhere to arms control agreements. For instance, in September 2020, Northrop Grumman Corporation was deployed by U.S. Air Force to develop the nation's aging land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system under a $13.3 billion contract. Moreover, The Federation of American Scientists estimated the cost of the GBSD/Sentinel around approximately $100 billion in acquisition fees and $264 billion throughout its lifecycle until 2075 (in Then-Year dollars). The expansion of land-based infrastructure because of its cost-effectiveness and flexibility will fuel the market demand for land-based platforms during the forecast period.
The 8,001km to 15,000km segment will capture the highest market share between 2023-2033
It is observed that the 8,001km to 15,000km segment will be capturing a higher market share in the range sector during the forecast period. This observation is accredited to the greater Range for target strike, decreased flight time, and difficulty for the target to intercept. Most countries are making efforts to acquire ICBMs of this range segment to strengthen their arsenal. For instance, in 2018, China's Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) test-fired the DF-41 ICBM, which offers a 12,000 – 15,000 km range. Frequent testing of ICBMs of this Range and the long target strike advantages provided by this segment will propel its growth during the forecast period.
The Solid Propulsion segment will capture the highest market share in the coming years
The solid propulsion segment is capturing a larger market share in the propulsion sector owing to the higher thrust and cost-effectiveness of solid propellants. Solid propellants are made of homogenous mixtures of diverse composites, which can be stored and handled efficiently. Ammonium perchlorate is the oxidizer ingredient in solid propellant mixtures for rockets, missiles, and munitions. Solid-fuel missiles have a key advantage over liquid-fuel missiles in being fueled from the point of manufacture. They, therefore, allow operators to preserve a high state of readiness and the potential to launch within minutes, conditioned on basing. As launch crews do not need to fuel the missiles and do not require direct access to them, they can be contained within sealed canisters that increase missile security, which is particularly important on protracted forward deployments. The fueling infrastructure is also less observable, which reduces an opponent's detection opportunities. Most of the U.S.'s ICBMs are solid propellant based, while North Korea is also making a shift towards solid propulsion. For instance, in February 2023, during a military parade, North Korea revealed its KN-23 solid-propellant short-range ballistic missile. Nations substituting liquid propulsion with solid propulsion will drive the demand for solid propulsion in the forecast period.
A hypersonic segment within speed to witness the highest CAGR during the forecast timeframe
The forecast timeframe has predicted the proliferation in demand for Hypersonic speed in the speed segment. Hypersonic means moving significantly in excess of the speed of sound. The hypersonic market's primary focus in the US is on national defense, which includes offensive weapons and associated countermeasures. With a 26 percent compound annual growth rate since 2014, yearly unclassified defense spending requirements for hypersonic technology are significantly over $2.6 billion. This consists of $157.4 million for hypersonic defense programs in the financial year 2020, growing up to $5 billion by 2025. Between 2018 and 2022, the international hypersonic market has progressed at a compound annual growth rate of 7.23 percent and, since 2015, has acknowledged approximately $328 million in venture capital investment. The influx of finances in the Hypersonic market is the primary reason for it to be dominating the speed type segment during the forecast period.
Asia-Pacific to witness the highest growth rate during the forecast period
Increasing geopolitical conflicts in the region resulting in the allocation of higher military budgets are propelling the demand for intercontinental ballistic missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. For instance, China increased its military spending by 7.1% in 2022 from 2021, taking the tally to 230 billion in 2022. Countries in the region are in a race to become self-dependent on both defense and economic fronts. For instance, in September 2022, under the "Buy India" category, the Defence Ministry of India entered a contract with Brahmo's Aerospace to acquire additional dual-role capable surface-to-surface BrahMos missiles at an approximate cost of Rs 1,700 crore. The increasing tensions between India, China, and Pakistan and frequent military testing in the Korean region are driving the market growth of intercontinental ballistic missiles during the forecast period.
Impact of COVID-19 on the Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles Market
COVID-19 moderately impacted the intercontinental ballistic missiles market in terms of losses and dropped sales. This is largely credited to the blocking of distribution channels and supply chains. COVID-19 demanded national governments invest in healthcare infrastructure, shifting their focus from military infrastructure. According to Stockholm International, military global spending in 2021 was 0.7% higher than that in 2020. The economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have not ended the unremitting skyward trend in world military expenditure since 2015. Since economies have recovered significantly across the globe in 2021, world military spending as a share of world gross domestic product (GDP) reached 2.2%, down from 2.3% in 2020. At 5.9%, average military spending as a segment of government expenditure in 2021 remained the same as in 2020. It is unlikely that the pandemic will have a long-term impact on the market.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles: Market Dynamics
The market dynamics section of the report covers a depth analysis of drivers, restraints, and opportunities impacting the intercontinental ballistic missiles market. The report also encompasses major market strategies practiced by the industry, followed by patent analysis, product analysis, competitive benchmarking of companies, PORTER and PESTLE analysis of the intercontinental ballistic missiles industry, pricing analysis, and geographic competitiveness to provide a detailed understanding. The major players operating the market are Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc., BAE System plc, Boeing, DRDO, General Dynamic Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Orbital ATK, Inc., Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, and Thales Group. These companies cumulatively hold the majority of the intercontinental ballistic missiles market share and actively undergoes strategic development such as new product launch, merger, collaboration, business expansion, acquisition, and long-term contracts to ensure market penetration. These companies also largely focus on research and development to gain competitiveness in the market. A detailed analysis of these companies is offered in the report.
Driver: Increasing geopolitical conflicts and war scenarios across the globe to boost market growth
The increasing market demand for intercontinental ballistic missiles is a collective outcome of growing geopolitical conflicts all around the globe. Nations looking to take a stronghold to assert political and strategic dominance globally are a primary factor in these conflicts. The recent Ukraine-Russia war is a primary example of a regional conflict. India and Pakistan also have a history of military face-offs over the Kashmir region, with China also involved in exchanges with India in the recent past. The U.S., Russia, and China are leading military leaders in the world. Nations are trying to make themselves self-sufficient to advance in the arms race by forming alliances to assert global dominance. For instance, in February 2011, New Star Treaty was signed by the United States of America and the Russian Federation. The treaty enhances U.S. national security by employing certifiable limits on all Russian-installed intercontinental-range nuclear weapons. The United States and the Russian Federation have approved to extend the treaty through February 4, 2026. The attempt to assert regional dominance by the nations giving rise to conflict is fostering the intercontinental ballistic missile market growth.
Restrain: High manufacturing and operational cost hinder market growth.
Maintaining an arsenal that possesses intercontinental ballistic missiles can be expensive. The cost involves testing, developing, and modernizing the missile along with maintaining it in the arsenal. The propulsion systems are not getting any cheaper, adding to the cost. The defense budget allocation has to be increased every year. As a result, to maintain the arsenal. For instance, in 2021, the U.S. had to allocate 5.7% of the total defense budget toward nuclear weapon spending, which in 2030 is expected to rise to 8.0% of the total defense spending. With the Covid pandemic demanding countries to develop the healthcare infrastructure, military developments such as ICBM development could put a strain on the nation's economy. With the advent of Hypersonic technology, military expenditure will increase more likely. According to a report by Bloomberg, Hypersonic U.S. weapons may cost $106 million each. Continuous technological advancement and the increasing cost of maintaining an ICBM-equipped arsenal will hinder the market growth of ICBMs.
Opportunity: Strategic alliances and technology transfer partnerships, followed by commercial spinoff to create market demand
The intercontinental ballistic missiles market has shown a great opportunity for growth, especially in the Asia Pacific region. With the risk of rising conflicts, nations are turning to other nations to develop their defense systems. For instance, in November 2020, India and the U.S. signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) which is third in line following the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA). The BECA agreement's core aim is to provide American geospatial intelligence to India that is gathered by meticulously examining satellite images and other related statistics. Commercial spinoffs are aerospace operations converted into military operations since spacecraft and missiles use the same propulsion systems. For instance, the Delta family comes from the Thor ballistic missile, which was first tested in 1963 in the U.S. Sequential evolutions have led to the Delta 2, extensively used nowadays under abundant variants to launch large satellites such as Landsat in sun-synchronous orbit (SSO), constellation satellites such as Iridium, GTO satellites, and even Martian probes. ICBMs used for space operations and nation-forming key technology transfer partnerships are creating growth opportunities in this market.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles Market: Recent Developments
- In March 2023, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile hours before the leaders of South Korea and Japan were to meet at a Tokyo summit. The missile flew about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) with a maximum altitude of 6,000 kilometers (3,730 miles) during the 70-minute flight. The missile perished in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan after being launched on a steep trajectory.
- In April 2022, Russia test-fired RS-28 Samrat having a range of excess of 10,000km-18,000km. This missile will add depth to Russia's nuclear forces. This test launch was duly notified to the other regions and was not perceived as a threat.
- In February 2023, North Korea unveiled at least 10 of the North's largest Hwasong-17 ICBMs, along with vehicles speciously designed to carry a solid-fueled ICBM at a military parade.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles Market: Synopsis
The study of the intercontinental ballistic missiles market offers revenue and growth data sets of segments provided at the global, regional, and country levels. The report offers the historical data set for 2018-2022 and the forecast period of 2023-2033. For analysis, Quadrant Market Insights (QMI) has segregated the intercontinental ballistic missiles market into four major segments as follows:
By Launch Platform
- Land Based
- Submarine Based
- 5,000km to 8,000km
- 8,001km to 15,000km
- More than 15,000km
- Liquid Propulsion
- Solid Propulsion
- Hybrid Propulsion
The regional analysis of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) market is as follows:
- Rest of Europe
- Rest of Asia-Pacific
Middle East & Africa
- South Africa
- Saudi Arabia
Key players operating in the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) industry are:
- Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc.
- BAE System plc
- General Dynamic Corporation
- Lockheed Martin Corporation
- Northrop Grumman Corporation
- Orbital ATK, Inc.
- Rafael Advanced Defense Systems
- Thales Group
Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Market: Who Should Purchase, and How It Will Help Readers
- The report is best suited for top-level decision-makers, individuals who are supposed to take a leadership role or require market research to start a business, independent researchers, research institutes, and anyone who wishes to gain detailed strategic insights into the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) market.
- This report provides a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the market segments, current trends, estimations, and dynamics of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) market analysis from 2018 to 2033 to identify the prevailing market opportunities.
- Market research and information related to key drivers, restraints, and opportunities are offered.
- Porter's five forces and PESTLE analysis highlight the potency of buyers and suppliers to enable stakeholders' market profit-oriented business decisions and strengthen their supplier-buyer network.
- An in-depth analysis of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) segmentation assists in determining the prevailing market opportunities.
- Major countries in each region are mapped according to their revenue contribution to the global market.
- Market player positioning facilitates benchmarking and provides a clear understanding of the present position of the market players.
- The report includes an analysis of the regional and global intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) industry trends, key players, market segments, application areas, and market growth strategies.
- The report offers insights from primary interviews and CXOs of major industry players. It also offers a comprehensive contact and event repository to ensure future collaborations among industry stakeholders.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Market: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: How big is the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) market?
A: The global intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) market showcased a revenue of USD 9.5 billion in 2022 and is projected to witness a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 6.00%over the forecast period of 2023-2033.
Q: Does the report have several intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) numbers bifurcated by segments and regions?
A: The report offers a total number of intercontinental ballistic missile market, further bifurcated into segments and regions. Please refer to the TOC page for more information.
Q: What are the major trends in the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) market?
A: Increasing geopolitical conflicts, strategic alliances, the advent of Hypersonic technology, and commercial spin offs affect the market growth of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Q: How can I get the sample Report on the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) market?
A: The intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) market report sample can be obtained on demand from the website. Also, 24*7 chat support and direct call services are provided to procure the sample report
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- Launch Platform
- North America
- Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Increasing arms race across the globe, followed by rising defense budget allocation
- Arms and Ammunition modernisation programs practices by several governments across the globe
- Increasing geopolitical conflicts and war scenario across the globe
- Strategic alliances and technology transfer partnership, followed by commercial spin off
- Increasing market demand
- International treaties limiting manufacturing and sales of ICBM
- High manufacturing and operational cost
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc., BAE System plc, Boeing, DRDO, General Dynamic Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Orbital ATK, Inc., Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, and Thales Group.